The following interactive charts give an overall snapshot of how the economy is doing, with growth, employment, and manufacturing. These charts run contrary to economic pundits who called the Obama depression a “recovery”, and call the Trump boom “heading into a recession”.
The following charts I used:
- Trade Balance (Balance of Payments)
- Unemployment with LFPR
- Manufacturing Employment
- Mining and Logging Employment
- Coal Employment
- Oil and Gas Extraction Employment
- Logging Employment
- Durable Goods Orders
- Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders, Excluding Aircraft
- Industrial Production Index
The GDP under Trump reflects a stable and growing economy, while growth was choked during the Obama depression. Which economy looks healthier and more stable? Obama had the lowest growth of any President, as you can see in the chart.
As China is reined in, and new trade deals are made and re-negotiated, there's less imbalance. The important thing to keep in mind when considering trade balance is independence. The more we're buying, the more dependent on other countries. We'll always be the bigger customer, but we can make stuff here as well. This will also contribute to a stronger GDP number (imports are subtracted).
I’m in the process of putting together a damning in-depth, deep-dive article on the unemployment data during the Obama depression and how they misled the public in a major way, but I wanted to show this chart to give a snapshot of the unemployment situation.
Take note of the labor participation rate. These are people who are actively working or looking for work. During the Obama depression, when people couldn’t find work and gave up, the administration didn’t count them in the labor force, which reduced the unemployment number. They had the audacity to say the economy was recovering while lying about the employment situation. Personally, I consider it a major scandal.
Take note at how demand is pulling people back into the labor force. Currently, about 70% of new jobs are people who were not in the labor force. That’s an incredible number. The question remains, why were these people out of the labor force under Obama if his economy was so good?
Unemployment data came out today and it's another doozie.
Employment in manufacturing has been recovering under Trump.
Mining and logging has been making a comeback. The Trump administration continues to slash regulations, and as demand ramps up, growth will continue, increasing jobs demand.
When Obama said he was going to bankrupt the coal industry, he meant it. Years ago, Rush Limbaugh said he hoped Obama wouldn’t succeed. He was deemed to be negative against Obama, but this is an example of what he meant. Trump is bringing coal jobs back from Obama’s “success”, albeit under heavy competition from other energy sources.
Oil and gas have been a jobs boom.
Keep your eye on logging. As the construction demand increases, and dumping stopped, we expect this industry to pick back up.
Durable goods orders remain strong. These are goods that last three or more years, and are typically more expensive. Consumers and businesses buy such goods when things are good and confidence is higher. You’re not going to buy a new car if you’re worried about losing your job, or buy a new cutting machine if you’re not confident about sales.
Capital goods orders are strong, and will have no choice but to pop higher as more business returns the the United States. Capital goods are used by businesses, like tools, machinery, vehicles, and whatever you need to make your business go. This is only strong if businesses are buying.
The industrial production index is a general indicator that measures production on gas, mining, and manufacturing industries, keyed from a base year of 2012.
As you can see, things are good. The big takeaway is as good as things are, this is BEFORE the USMCA kicks in. Those of you who were in your teens and twenties during the Obama depression, and are getting a taste for what an economy should be, you haven’t seen anything yet. Those in my age range remember the tech boom in the 1990s, and how crazy it was. However, we didn’t learn until later it was more paper, while in contrast, this Trump economy is growing from a strong foundation.
Sorry, Bernie-bots, no breadlines in this economy.
UPDATE: Added Kudlow on Varney