Consumer confidence numbers came in today, and of course they’re off the charts. The fake financial news media are selling the fear of a recession that nobody’s buying:
U.S. consumer confidence remained unshaken by unjustified media hype about a potential recession. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined only marginally in August after a big rebound in July.
The prior month was revised 0.1 higher from an initially reported 135.7. Forecasts ranged from a low of 126.0 to a high of 133.0, with the consensus coming in at a still elevated 130.0.
The Index now stands at 135.1 (1985=100), down only slightly from 135.8.
Interestingly, the Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – rose significantly from 170.9 to 177.2. That’s the highest level since November 2000, when it came in at 179.7.
It’s no surprise to us business owners who, for the first time in a decade, have to put in work to find talent. For those of us who were fortunate enough to be in business during the Obama depression, we could throw a rock and hit someone wanting a job. Now, not so much.
There's no dispute that the economy is on fire. Frankly, it’s no surprise to most people, since the labor force is jammed packed to the brim. The same people who told them Hillary had a 97% chance of winning are the same ones telling them Trump is wrecking the economy.
The situation is what it is. Last month, retail sales were double what these experts expected. People are spending money because they have money, and they're not worried about their job. Durable goods orders are up. Jobless claims (pdf) are dropping. Home sales are up.
This is not data that portends a recession.
For every single story that is forced to report on the positive economic data, you will see an explanation at how it's an anomaly, or how it's only because of a one-off boost in a specific sector, or the data isn't as positive as the headline suggests. These people hold Obama to a high standard, and it kills them that the Trump economy is tap-dancing all over it. Sorry, Obama, but you didn't build this economy; Trump did.
How can this possibly be happening? When people are happy and employed, they spend money, which makes businesses grow. When businesses grow, they buy from other businesses and hire people. When people are hired for a job, they make money and spend money, continuing this amazing natural cycle of capitalism.
This only happens in a good economy; not a recession, or worse, an Obama depression.
People won’t spend money if they they’re worried about their jobs. Many of you remember the Obama years. I know people who went unemployed for months; think about how unbelievable that sounds now. People were terrified of losing their job during Obama’s “recovery”; now they’d find another, probably at higher pay as wages are increasing.
The employment dynamic has completely flipped for the worker to where they have the upper hand over us business owners. There’s not enough workers, and certainly not enough skilled workers.
This is mostly a result of the Obama years, where the education system taught students how to hate business and the country. They went into truckloads of debt, only to graduate with just enough skill to operate a latte machine, or if they got lucky, a job with a digital firm writing "orange man bad" articles.
The intellectual and vocational depression of these millennials is a tragedy and set the country back a decade. It's a major contributing factor to the current labor shortage and why grandma and grandpa are hopping back into the workforce.
To add to the excitement and confidence of the economy, the President has been floating the idea of cutting payroll taxes and cutting capital gains taxes. Bernie supporters, academics, and financial pundits don’t understand what that means or even care, but cutting payroll taxes for a business owner would be a dream. This would be rocket fuel for the already-hot economy.
Continue to ignore the blatantly anti-American and anti-Trump financial pundits and keep spending money.